2005 Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

One of the best sports handicapping value lessons that a sports bettor can ever learn is from bad teams in non Bowl Championship Series leagues. Louisiana Lafayette has had seven straight losing seasons straight up since 1998 and yet has finished in the red against the odds in just two of those seven years. To the sports betting masses of asses, teams such as Louisiana Lafayette are to be ignored or opposed when they are big dogs against “name brand” teams but, to the intelligent and more sophisticated college football sports bettors, such teams can offer excellent value against the odds.

After demonstrating themselves as a solid value team, Louisiana Lafayette’s value plummeted in 2001 as they beat the sports betting odds in just two out of their ten lined games. The sports betting market correction continued in 2002 as the Ragin’ Cajuns went 5-7 against the pointspread, and had worn out what little welcome and appeal that they once had with sports bettors. Louisiana Lafayette carried some value into the 2003 season and lost only one of their first four games against the odds, only to fail to get the cash in their next three consecutive games. With their appeal totally shot, and appearing on few lists of football picks, Louisiana Lafayette ended up reclaiming some of their value and beat the sports betting line in three of their final four games of 2003. Still, they carried very little appeal entering 2004 and received scant attention from the sports betting bloggers.

The sports handicapping market correction that began at the end of 2003 for Louisiana Lafayette continued into the first portion of the 2004 season as the Ragin’ Cajuns beat the sports betting odds in their first four lined games to make for a streak of seven wins in their last eight games. One of the keys to successful sports handicapping is a sense of timing and, unfortunately, the majority of sports bettors are reactive rather than proactive which was the case with Louisiana Lafayette. Of those seven covers by the Ragin’ Cajuns, six were as dogs. In their next three games, they would be made the chalk by the sports betting odds makers and this lack of value translated into three consecutive losses against the pointspread. The lack of value continued as Lafayette, as a small 2.5-point home dog, lost their fourth consecutive game against the odds 17-27 to North Texas. They then covered their next game as a 13.5-point home dog to Troy, and then as a 4-point dog at Louisiana Monroe.