2005 Nevada Wolfpack Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The Nevada Wolfpack have not had a winning season since 1998 but, beginning in 2001, had finished in the black against the odds for three consecutive seasons. In 2002, in fact, Nevada beat the sports betting odds in seven of their first nine games before failing to get the cash in their final three games of that campaign, in a sports handicapping market correction. In 2003 the Wolfpack beat the sports betting odds in five of their first six lined games, and began garnering the attention of the sports betting bloggers who began to label them as a “value” and “sleeper” play to consider for football picks. Nevada’s great start depleted their sports handicapping value, however, and they dropped four of their final five games against the odds in 2003. Entering the 2004 season, Nevada received little attention from the sports betting bloggers, as teams in the Western Athletic Conference either have to be real good or real bad to get much attention from the sports betting community. Thus, as 2004 started, Nevada was not likely to be on many lists of football picks in either a positive or negative manner.

Nevada split their first two lined games against the odds in 2004 and then failed to cover their next three games to fall to 2-4 straight up and 1-4 against the odds. While still getting little mention at the online sports betting blogs Nevada’s streak of poor results against the odds was noticed by a few sharp and detail oriented members of the sports handicapping fraternity as the Wolfpack had covered just two of their last ten games.

At home as 7-point homecoming dogs to Rice, Nevada rallied with a 35-10 win and seemed to keep momentum going in their next game, a 54-48 overtime win and cover over Tulsa as 3-point home chalks. Nevada continued to get the cash in their next game, a 42-24 home win over San Jose State as 14-point chalks. Now all of a sudden, Nevada was 5-4 straight up and 4-4 against the odds and there was talk of a potential bowl berth for the Wolfpack.

Incredibly, at WAC patsy SMU, who has been struggling for years, Nevada was beaten 20-38 as 6.5-point chalks. This defeat took the wind out of their sails as they were mauled 17-54 at Fresno State in their next game as 26-point dogs and the were destroyed at home by Boise 21-58 as 25-point dogs to finish 5-7 straight up and 4-7 against the odds.