2005 New Mexico State Aggies Handicapping Review
By Tom Wilkinson
New Mexico State has served as a solid sports
handicapping example of sports betting market corrections
since the 2000 season. After dropping their first three
games against the odds in 2000 they went on
to six of their last eight to finish the season. The upward
swing continued in 2001 with five wins against the odds in their first eight games before they lost
their final four games against the pointspread to complete
the season. In 2002 the sports handicapping market
correction continued as New Mexico State lost nine out of
twelve games versus the sports betting odds, making for a
string of thirteen failures in sixteen games. That streak
was extended to five out of twenty-two failures against the
sports betting line in 2003 as the Aggies dropped four of
their first six games versus the line. By this time they
were fully labeled at the online sports betting blogs as
“losers” and a solid “go against” team for anyone’s lists of
football picks. With their sports handicapping reputation,
or lack thereof, fully ensconced, a market correction was
likely and well over due. Sure enough, with nobody wanting
them on their lists of football picks, (except in
opposition), New Mexico State covered four of their final
five games in 2003. This did little, however, to enhance
their reputation at the online sports betting blogs as they
entered the 2004 campaign.
In their 2004 opener at Arkansas, it appeared as if the
Aggies were attempting to return to everyone’s “A” lists of
“go against” football picks as they were hammered 13-63 as
20.5-point dogs. This slaughter served a perverse purpose of
enhancing their value because they were so completely
unappealing at this point. At Cal, the Aggies were installed
as a ridiculous 36-point dog in a 14-41 loss. In their home
opener against Troy, they won straight up 22-18 as 9.5-point
dogs. Just as they started to become a possible sports
handicapping value team in the eyes of many observers,
however, New Mexico State went back into the tank as they
were clobbered 3-38 as small 6-point home dogs against New
Mexico. After a 0-45 loss at Texas El Paso as 7.5-point dogs
the Aggies were written off by the sports betting bloggers, who correctly pointed out their lack of value in
those two failures.
With a mark of 2-3 against the odds, and
coming off consecutive ugly losses, New Mexico State offered
no sports betting appeal. They went on to beat the sports
betting odds in four of their final six games to finish 6-5
against the sports betting line.
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