Vanderbilt Commodores Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

The Vanderbilt Commodores are an excellent sports handicapping example of how the sports betting values of a college football team can often have violent fluctuations.

Vandy ended the 2000 season with three wins against the odds in their final five games and proceeded to cover two of their first three games against the line in 2001 to make for a string of five out of eight. They then proceeded to collapse by losing five of their final seven games against the sports betting line in 2002 and won just three out of eight games against the odds in all of 2002. They then began 2003 in similar pattern with just one win against the odds in their first six games. This gave Vanderbilt a grand total of just six wins in a total of 24 games over a span of three seasons! At this point, as unattractive as Vanderbilt is to most sports bettors, a market correction was way past overdue and the sports betting odds makers would surely keep adjusting their lines until Vandy was appealing enough to attract action. With such a horrible record it stood to reason that Vandy would soon carry extra value for sports betting bargain hunters.

Just as Vanderbilt had reached the point with five games remaining in the 2003 season of being considered a cancer on any list of football picks the Commodores, in fact, proved to be an outstanding bargain and won four consecutive games against the odds, which included covers against SEC powerhouses Georgia and Florida. With their reputation as an SEC doormat it stood to figure that the Commodores would continue to be a bargain entering the 2004 season.

Vandy started off the 2004 season by paying off sports bettors in three of their first four games against the sports betting line. This increased their overall string to seven wins in nine games against the line dating back to the end of 2003. Many sports betting bloggers began to point out Vandy as a good “value” and “live dog” which was a sign that they were close to maxing out on their value potential.

Sure enough, once they were getting recognition from the sports betting market as a good sleeper pick for anyone’s list of football picks, Vandy dropped four of their final six games against the sports betting line. Vandy has failed to post a winning record against the line in seven straight years.