2005 Cincinnati Bengals NFL Handicapping Review

 

By Tom Wilkinson

 

In 2003, the Cincinnati Bengals under first year coach Marvin Lewis regained the sense of pride and professionalism with an 8-8 record, which was a significant improvement over the 2-14 mark of 2002. The 2003 Bengals proved to be a great sports betting value early on when they beat the sports betting odds in nine of their first twelve games, which sets up an outstanding sports handicapping lesson on value.

The Bengals 9-3 run against the online sports betting websites was because most sports betting players failed to take them seriously. Once they gained respect, and sports betting money began to flow in on Cincinnati, the value was gone against the sports betting odds and, in fact, the Bengals failed to beat the sports betting odds in their final four games of 2003. Still, the high expectations remained for Cincinnati in 2004 due to their dramatic improvement, keeping the value of this team poor.

In their first five games of 2004, Cincinnati went 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the sports betting odds, giving them a winless streak of nine games against the online sports betting websites and sportsbooks dating back to 2003.

Cincinnati’s blip gives two valuable sports handicapping lessons to sports betting players. First, when a team comes too far/too fast there is likely going to be a sharp correction, much like a stock on the market that took off. Second, the sports betting odds makers will adjust their sports betting line on a team that the public starts to fall in love with when making their football picks. To put this another way, the secret on Cincinnati was out by the final month of 2003, and they snuck up on neither their opponents or the sports betting odds makers from that point on, leaving only the late arriving general sports betting public holding the empty bag of losses against the online sports betting websites and sportsbooks.

Sure enough, after the sports betting public soured on Cincinnati and stopped including them on their football picks, the Bengals beat the sports betting odds in 6 of their next 8 games in 2004 after that 0-5 start. The sports handicapping value on Cincinnati had shifted in the opposite direction and once again the Bengals became a value once the public abandoned them. While it may be to simplistic to say that it is wise to make football picks against the public it also is often true at online sports betting boards