2005 Cincinnati Bengals NFL Handicapping Review
By Tom Wilkinson
In 2003, the Cincinnati Bengals under first year coach
Marvin Lewis regained the sense of pride and professionalism
with an 8-8 record, which was a significant improvement over
the 2-14 mark of 2002. The 2003 Bengals proved to be a great
sports betting value early on when they beat the sports
betting odds in nine of their first twelve games, which sets
up an outstanding sports handicapping lesson on value.
The Bengals 9-3 run against the online sports betting
websites was because most sports betting players failed to
take them seriously. Once they gained respect, and sports
betting money began to flow in on Cincinnati, the value was
gone against the sports betting odds and, in fact, the
Bengals failed to beat the sports betting odds in their
final four games of 2003. Still, the high expectations
remained for Cincinnati in 2004 due to their dramatic
improvement, keeping the value of this team poor.
In their first five games of 2004, Cincinnati went 1-4
straight up and 0-5 against the sports betting odds, giving
them a winless streak of nine games against the online
sports betting websites and sportsbooks dating back to 2003.
Cincinnati’s blip gives two valuable sports handicapping
lessons to sports betting players. First, when a team comes
too far/too fast there is likely going to be a sharp
correction, much like a stock on the market that took off.
Second, the sports betting odds makers will adjust their
sports betting line on a team that the public starts to fall
in love with when making their football picks. To put this
another way, the secret on Cincinnati was out by the final
month of 2003, and they snuck up on neither their opponents
or the sports betting odds makers from that point on,
leaving only the late arriving general sports betting public
holding the empty bag of losses against the online sports
betting websites and sportsbooks.
Sure enough, after the sports betting public soured on
Cincinnati and stopped including them on their football
picks, the Bengals beat the sports betting odds in 6 of
their next 8 games in 2004 after that 0-5 start. The sports
handicapping value on Cincinnati had shifted in the opposite
direction and once again the Bengals became a value once the
public abandoned them. While it may be to simplistic to say
that it is wise to make football picks against the public it
also is often true at online sports betting boards
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