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What is NOT Football Betting Value?


As the old saying goes, “for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.” That theory definitely holds true in college football betting, particularly on the subject of value. It is just as important for a gambler to recognize what is NOT college football betting value as to what value actually is. The ultimate simple definition of what is NOT gambling value is when a gambler pays more than he should have for a side or total bet.


When a gambler is laying 5.5-points with the chalk instead of the 4 that is called for, he lacks college football betting value. When a gambler bets a game under 33.5 when the total should be 36 he, again, lacks betting value.


Beyond that simple definition and examples of poor value there are some simple warning flags for gamblers to always be on the alert for in order to avoid getting sucked into wagers on poor values and bankroll erosion.


Simply stated, a gambler should never lay more points with a favorite than is absolutely necessary. Although it is a good rule of thumb in college football betting to first consider the underdog in a matchup but there will be plenty of occasions in which a bettor ends up having to take the chalk, which is fine in and of itself. What is totally unacceptable, however, is when a gambler makes an overlay, which is to lay more points than what should be required.


A gambler must never forget that ore your football betting day even starts he is up against the formidable obstacle of the ten-percent house edge. Every time a bettor makes an overlay he heaps an additional handicap on himself and surrenders even more of a numeric edge to the house.


A bettor may now and again get away with the occasional overlay but in the long run he simply cannot sustain this defiance of the laws of gambling physics. It would be no different than investors that mortgaged their homes on the tech stocks in the 1990’s. Their portfolios may have increased somewhat by in the long run they were busted because they bought high rather than low. In essence they made overlays on the stock market whereas the folks who came in early got the VALUE! College football betting works the same way.

An excellent place to recognize poor value is when a poor team is favored in a garbage game against another loser. In a matchup of two losers, why would any sane person lay points? There is no value there.


A gambler will not find value with teams that have poor coaching, quarterbacks, defenses, turnover margin stats and penalty issues. There is no value with teams laying big numbers against comparable opponents or teams that are favored by too much based simply on the ignorant opinions of the masses.


Recognizing value and lack of value in college football betting is far more valuable than knowing who the third stringers of a team are. It’s all part of developing the same mentality of an oddsmaker and to think like one rather than like a gambler. Lack of value is when you are on the same side as the masses rather than the house.




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