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Old 11-18-2005, 05:50 PM
TomWilkinson TomWilkinson is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 118
Default Favorites Ripping Apart the Books in the NFL

NFL favorites are winning at a fantastic pace this year. Through 10 weeks the favorites are destroying the books at nearly a 58% rate. The numbers show favorites at 81-59-4 against the spread and that is bad news for sports books around the world.

When favorites win in the NFL it is almost always bad news for the sportsbooks because the public almost always bets favorites and overs. When favorites are covering at this type of percentage it means the books are getting hurt. Does this happen very often? The answer is a resounding no. The last year that was profitable for favorites was 1998 when the favorites went just over 53% against the spread.

As dominant as the 58% number against the spread looks it is even more astounding when you look at straight up results, which can be even more of a problem for the sportsbooks because so many teaser and parlay players take the favorites. Usually favorites will win about 65% of the time straight up. This year that number is at about 75%. That is bad news for sportsbooks with their many parlay and teaser players.

Will this trend turn around in the later part of the NFL season? The odds say it will, but then it again, it could just be one of those weird years when the favorites and the public do very well. Those are the seasons that bookmakers around the world dread.
Tom Wilkinson
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