[airwalker309]

Hey I will start listing my picks tongiht and be back tomorrow for write ups, trends, and other info. Big card tomorrow with UCONN playing Nova and other revenge games.

[airwalker309]

First Play:

UConn -1
The biggest thing in this matchup is the size advantage that UConn has. The four guard lineup (if Nardi plays) will need to be lights out shooting if Villanova has any chance to stay close in this game and they'll need to use their defensive quickness to always be in a good defensive position to make up for their size dis-advantage. I think this is too much to ask for. The big game experience upfront with Boone and Gay and the 3 point ability of Marcus Williams along with their deep bench and superior coaching will lead UConn to victory in a hostile environment at the Wachovia Center.

[airwalker309]

Kansas -3
Kansas continues to get no respect. They've won seven games in a row, six of them by double digits. Oklahoma State on the other hand has lost six of their last seven. Kansas is 6-3 ATS on the road, and OSU is 3-5 ATS at home. Kansas also has a large advantage in this game on the boards and a much better defense. This game has all the makings of the Wisconsin/Penn State game from Saturday afternoon, as I look for Kansas to blow them out, and continue their climb back on top of the Big 12

[airwalker309]

Gonzaga 1H -6</B>
Portland is a very poor team, especially defensively and on the boards. I may put a play in on the full game as well, but Gonzaga seems to play up/down to their opponenets, especially down the stretch. Personally I think they'll be so far ahead, that a backdoor won't be possible, but I'd like to see what other individuals think before I put the full game in. Gonzaga usually gets off to a quick start and I look for morrison to have a big day again.

[airwalker309]

Villnova vs. Uconn Over 148


I can easily see this being a high scoring game. Nova starting 4 guards, you know they'll be shooting the 3 with UConn's overpowering inside presence . Meanwhile, on the flipside, UConn will be pounding it down low A LOT early on to establish the inside game, then tossing it out to Anderson and Williams (even Gay @ times) for the trifecta
This will NOT be a defensive contest, and should go over 148, as Uconn has been blowing people out as of late.

[airwalker309]

CONNECTICUT - Recent ATS Trends Against the spreadOver/UnderStraight Up CurrentLast 3 Since 1997CurrentLast 3 Since 1997CurrentLast 3 Since 1997DescriptionW-LW-LW-LO-UO-UO-UW-LW-LW-Lin all games12-644-36134-1248-1040-3383-8322-178-15239-61when playing against a team with a winning record10-534-32103-997-834-2771-7315-153-14153-55when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games7-125-1770-634-419-2050-578-034-898-38versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games3-111-719-142-29-913-184-015-323-10versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game3-317-1534-313-318-1322-268-030-650-19in all lined games12-644-36134-1248-1040-3383-8317-165-15201-61as a favorite12-640-33112-1058-1037-2968-6417-162-11183-36as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick1-02-29-81-04-07-41-02-29-8in road games6-114-1345-444-315-1029-286-119-858-32in road lined games6-114-1345-444-315-1029-286-119-858-32against conference opponents7-328-1984-765-525-1953-509-138-9122-40in February games3-013-636-322-110-822-243-016-351-17when playing with one or less days rest3-115-842-322-212-1027-295-022-463-20after a conference game6-326-2085-735-424-1954-569-036-10124-37off a win against a conference rival6-221-1664-555-320-1542-398-028-993-28after allowing 60 points or less5-215-1238-463-413-1128-2310-031-482-19after scoring 80 points or more4-216-1648-513-316-1125-257-130-794-22VILLANOVA - Recent ATS Trends Against the spreadOver/UnderStraight Up CurrentLast 3 Since 1997CurrentLast 3 Since 1997CurrentLast 3 Since 1997DescriptionW-LW-LW-LO-UO-UO-UW-LW-LW-Lin all games8-945-31130-1139-735-2763-5118-360-28165-110after allowing 60 points or less6-215-1237-266-116-818-1710-025-843-29when playing against a team with a winning record6-733-22101-768-428-2051-4211-335-2497-92when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games0-419-1359-471-212-1532-333-119-1548-60versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games2-212-617-101-37-109-123-113-715-14versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game7-522-1236-299-321-1225-1412-226-1238-31versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games1-03-215-120-13-310-90-10-66-22versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game1-03-221-190-13-310-110-11-615-28in all lined games8-945-31130-1139-735-2763-5114-350-27137-109as an underdog1-017-663-470-110-1027-230-18-1634-77as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick0-01-07-30-01-02-10-01-07-3in all home games3-417-1556-485-219-728-189-131-10102-29in home lined games3-417-1556-485-219-728-186-123-1077-29against conference opponents3-725-2379-765-424-1441-329-129-1981-76in February games1-211-740-260-36-914-212-111-934-34when playing with one or less days rest0-16-420-141-06-412-91-07-620-20after a conference game2-725-1979-733-521-1544-336-328-1979-77off a win against a conference rival2-613-1441-382-514-924-195-315-1338-42

[airwalker309]

ok sry that didnt come out right it was supposed to be a table

[PistolPeteM21]

Air,

I like the UCONN play as their size inside seems to be indefensable. Moreover, their guards are so long that they should be able to shut down the perimeter, thus completely negating anything Nova can do offensively. All Nova does is shoot the 3. UCONN will contest every 3 and give up no offensive rebounds. I definately like the play.